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Tim McIntyre Updated 2 Nov 2026, 5:01am First published 2 Nov 2026, 5:00am Add as a preferred source on Google Finder expert Richard Whitten said borrowers were feeling the pinch of rate hikes in 2026. ANALYSIS Economists and commentators are falling all over themselves to predict a rate hike from the RBA when it meets this week, with some going as far as to say it’s guaranteed. But not everyone is convinced.
Finder’s RBA survey saw 30 out of 40 panellists predict a Melbourne Cup day rate hike, with Finder’s home loan spokesman Richard Whitten, warning of the pressure the move would cause to households. “If the RBA moves on Tuesday, that’s five rate hikes in a single year. Most borrowers are feeling every one of them,” Mr Whitten said.
Dr Andrew Wilson is predicting a hold. Picture: Rob Wright “Since January, the cash rate would have climbed 1.25 percentage points. On a $500,000 mortgage, that’s roughly $258 a month ($3,094 per year) more that you’re having to fork out compared to the start of the year – it’s a huge hit to the budget.” But if three quarters of panellists are predicting a hike, that means there are 10 who are calling it as a hold decision.
MORE: Bank blow to save Aussies as RBA hike ruled out David Robertson of Bendigo Bank said the RBA “can pause” in November after raising rates four times during the year. “A split decision is likely,” he said. “I would prefer to see a more patient approach given recent jobs and spending data.” Dr Andrew Wilson from My Housing Market pointed to jobs numbers, saying “emerging stress in the labour market with jobless now rising to highest levels for some time will see RBA take a more cautious approach to rate rises and leave on hold over November.” Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University said a marginal increase to trimmed mean inflation for the month suggested inflation pressures had not intensified significantly.
“A range of economic indicators suggest the risk of a persistent inflation pass-through is diminishing,” he said. “Unemployment has risen to 4.7 per cent, house prices have fallen 5.2 per cent from their March peak, the trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 4.5 per cent this year, and consumer confidence has weakened sharply. MORE: Aus to enter recession on this crucial date Economist Stephen Koukoulas.
Picture: Tara Croser. “I believe the RBA does not need to and will not raise the cash rate further in November, despite its concerns about inflation expectations.” Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics said “the outlook points to very weak growth and marked deflationary pressures, especially from the labour market and household wealth destruction (falling housing prices),” while Craig Emerson of Emerson Economics said “the data do not warrant an increase and the RBA might be talking up a cash rate increase to modify behaviour.” Jakob Madsen of University of Western Australia said “domestic demand and consumer spending growth are showing signs of moderation, although business investment remains relatively strong. Holding the cash rate would allow the RBA to assess incoming data and the lagged effects of previous rate increases, balancing the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of unnecessarily weakening economic activity.” Mark Crosby of Monash University said “despite warnings of further rate rises due to ongoing inflationary pressures, the real economy is stalling fast and warrants a wait-and-see approach.” Matt Turner of GSC Finance said “the latest rate rise has really slowed down the economy with many discretionary items and services really taking a hit ...
I believe that the RBA has done enough.” Craig Emerson said an increase isn’t warranted. Picture: Julian Smith. MORE: Neighbour bulldozes next door, triggers flooding Jayden Vecchio of Hunter Galloway said “we’re seeing borrowers hold off on decisions while they try to work out where rates are heading.
That uncertainty is already making people more cautious about how much they borrow and when they buy. I think the RBA will keep talking tough on inflation while giving this year’s four rate increases more time to work.” Cameron Murray of Fresh Economic Thinking said “weakness in housing and labour market suggests previous rate increases are softening activity, which the RBA might expect to flow through to low inflation soon.” Help us improve your reading experience Got a minute? Your feedback will help us build a better experience for you.
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Source: Real Estate
